Vulnerable communities in the Horn of Africa, in the midst of one of
the worst droughts in a decade, are bracing for yet another potential huge challenge in coming months: floods
triggered by the climatic phenomenon El Niño and associated mudslides, crop destruction, water-borne
diseases and disrupted road networks. Countries most at risk of flash floods are Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania
and Uganda, but Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia could also be affected.
“More than 23 million people in pastoral, agricultural and sub-urban communities--as well internally
displaced people and refugees in the region--are reeling from the impact of water and food shortages, pasture
scarcity, conflict and insecurity. We continue to need massive help to deal with this. An additional shock in
this intersection of human vulnerabilities would be devastating,” said United Nations Emergency Relief
Coordinator and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, John Holmes. UNICEF estimates that in
2009, 500,000 children under five years of age will suffer life-threatening severe acute malnutrition in
Africa’s Horn.
United Nations and non-governmental humanitarian organizations are working in support of governments
across the region on an urgent footing to develop or fine tune contingency plans in anticipation of the impact
of El Niño on vulnerable communities already stretched to the breaking point.
“I am encouraged by the sense of urgency shown by humanitarian organizations, governments and
communities in their efforts to prepare. While we cannot prevent these climatic shocks, we certainly can
mitigate their disastrous effects through forward planning and the right funding from the donor community,”
said John Holmes.
In Kenya, some 750,000 persons could be affected by floods and mudslides. Of these, 150,000 are refugees
who could be forced to relocate to higher ground. In Somalia, some 450,000 persons in the Juba and Shabelle
river basins could be affected. Uganda has elaborated flood contingency and evacuation plans, and UNICEF
is preparing to give immediate support to 25,000 persons. In Tanzania, an estimated 50,000 persons could be
directly affected if flood patterns mirror those of 2006-2007. Potentially flood affected people in Djibouti
might be exposed to new water-borne diseases or experience a deterioration of the ongoing cholera outbreak.
Although the humanitarian community is undertaking flood contingency planning, funding and humanitarian
access remain the most significant constraints.
The big problem of the Horn for now remains the drought. In some drought-affected areas, enhanced El Niño
rains will be welcomed as pasture will regenerate and water reserves will be replenished. However, even with
this help, it is not expected that the widespread food insecurity in the region will show signs of improving
until the harvesting season in early 2010.
The report Horn of Africa Alert – October 2009 is available online: http://ochaonline.un.org/rocea
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